免費軟體-好用的網路收音機Tapinradio

以前學英語跟聽熱門音樂靠的是收音機與ICRT廣播電台~
現在軟體設計越來越方便~只要透過網路~便能連結世界各國的音樂電台~

甚至連只對區域開放的電台都能收聽~(想想~為何要限制??)


這套軟體"Tapinradio"

下載點
http://www.raimersoft.com/tapinradio.aspx

按下"Type to search"旁的下拉鍵它就會分出四個大分類~
Countries-國家別
Genres-年代
National-國家別
Networks-網路

可自行按一下~畢竟茫茫"廣播海"

邊尋邊找~才是樂趣~

且在"Stations"中還可勾選"Show station meanu"
便可看到及時播放的曲目

狠棒耶~


DG

流行病學的傳染方程式-Kermack-McKendrick

最近對Diffusion產生了興趣~
結果又回到公共衛生的老本行-其實也不算"老本行"~只是大學四年修過且被當過很多次~
但說真的~印象中還真的沒學到這一塊-以數學模型估算感染的傳遞影響力...
...若公共衛生沒學到... 那... 怎管制疾病...

但是因為紅蔥頭我小時不努力~數學給它半知半解~當然微積分則更...不敢說明~
卻啊~到了四時多才發現數學的妙用-用"簡明的語言"來說明複雜問題的趨勢~...

只好到這時問東問西~甚至借來高中數學慢慢理解~

而以下呢~則是最近頗改興趣的領域~ 特別記錄一下~

以下文章為網路上找到的

The Kermack-McKendrick model is an SIR model for the number of people infected with a contagious illness in a closed population over time. It was proposed to explain the rapid rise and fall in the number of infected patients observed in epidemics such as the plague. It assumes that the population size is fixed (i.e., no births, deaths due to disease, or deaths by natural causes), incubation period of the infectious agent is instantaneous, and duration of infectivity is same as length of the disease. It also assumes a completely homogeneous population with no age, spatial, or social structure. The model consists of a system of three coupled nonlinear ordinary differential equations, (1) (2) (3) where is time, is the number of susceptible people(易受感染), is the number of people infected(被感染病人數), is the number of people who have recovered and developed immunity to the infection(產生免疫力的人), is the infection rate(感染的機率), and is the recovery rate(復原的機率).The key value governing the time evolution of these equations is the so-called epidemiological threshold, (資料2稱為基本再生率) (4) Note that the choice of the notation is a bit unfortunate, since it has nothing to do with . is defined as the number of secondary infections caused by a single primary infection(研究的限制); in other words, it determines the number of people infected by contact with a single infected person before his death or recovery(端視傳染力強不強). When , each person who contracts the disease will infect fewer than one person before dying or recovering(疾病到控制), so the outbreak(爆發) will peter out (). When , each person who gets the disease will infect more than one person(不只傳染一位~所以不易控制), so the epidemic will spread (). is probably the single most important quantity in epidemiology. Note that the result derived above, applies only to the basic Kermack-McKendrick model, with alternative SIR models having different formulas for and hence for . The Kermack-McKendrick model was brought back to prominence after decades of neglect by Anderson and May (1979). More complicated versions of the Kermack-McKendrick model that better reflect the actual biology of a given disease are often used. 參考資料 1.大部份資料來自(Most sentence was taken from- http://mathworld.wolfram.com/Kermack-McKendrickModel.html If copyright infringement, please sent me an e-mail.  I will take this article off as soon as possible. 2.http://dufu.math.ncu.edu.tw/calculus/calculus_eng/node137.html DG **If copyright infringement, plase let me know.  I will take this article off as soon as possible.**

25%或是75%??---我是眾數

這是個老實驗~因為看到中文好書..."引爆趨勢"
他說的
紐約市容-->治安 暴力環境-->暴力行為

這些讓我想到孟母三遷跟教育到的孩子的狀況(若我是他們...易地而處... 我... 沒把握)

重要的是他提及三種重要引爆風潮的角色
1.連結者 2.專家 3.推銷員  數位教育 環境的重要 跟意識定著等等等...很有內容

也值得探究與深思


閱讀時本來興致昂揚頗感心有戚戚焉~思考卻卡在這一疑惑上...
一時興起... 發現自我邏輯確實需要再強化...特立此篇...以警自我~



最原始的 Wason Selection Task---來做題目吧

有四張卡片 題目限定如下

If 卡片一面為雙數 then另一面為紅色 要翻哪幾張卡片才能確定沒規則沒被違反


http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wason_selection_task


換言之
若 卡片一面為雙數 則 另一面為紅色... (有沒比較清楚...)要翻哪幾張卡片才能確定沒規則沒被違反


答案








我的 8(偶數) 與紅...

是 錯的(屬於75%錯誤的一方...但我盡量爬回25%)







正確的是8(偶數)與棕色


總和Wiki和 Leda,(1992)的說法這是If P then Q

所以
P為雙數 非P 為奇數---Q為紅色 非Q為非紅色

檢查重點為"If 卡片一面為雙數 then另一面為紅色"

所以~
若檢查的是3(非P) 無論背後為甚麼顏色...跟這規則都沒關係 紅色亦可為奇數
若檢查的是紅色卡片---如上述...若為奇數...也無法打破規則

惟有
檢查8...確認直觀條件是否達成"有雙則紅"
及檢查褐色...確認不為 2 4 6 8 10....(雙卻為不同色... )

只要遇到這種If...then抽驗的都是P與N-Q



衍伸題
酒吧中有四人-1人喝酒 1人喝可樂 1人16歲 1人25歲
規定為喝酒的人要超過20歲... 請問檢查哪兩位以確認是否規定被破壞(Leda 是寫檢查ID..但)


所以
可以喝酒-->P... 20歲以上-->Q


同理 請各位同胞多加回味了

16歲的若有喝則... 所以應該不是檢查ID



DG

一切的起始點--Malcolm Gladwell(葛拉威爾),齊思賢譯-引爆趨勢(The Tipping Point)-時報出版, pp181-pp181, 20110817 (譯者已經很強了 只是這段翻譯我認為不宜(應為酒館內...而非酒館內喝酒)

另一寫這篇的理由是原作者以為大家都是25%的優秀人才~所以~書中沒對這邏輯推導寫清楚~我只好繼續追查下去)

這本書也是本好書~雖然它已經出版N久了(汗...2000年授權台灣版...)
原文版在159頁

書中線索
Leda cosmides &John Tooby, 1992, "Cognitive Adaptation and Social Exchange", Oxford U. Press
他的貢獻並非我所提及的實驗而是在Social Exchange 利用到認知理論與各項理論...才疏學淺暫且不論

最原始的研究-Wason Selection Task...
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wason_selection_task